In a report issued today, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services examines the effect of the weak dollar on America and its major trading partners in Europe, Canada, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand.
Standard & Poor’s chief economist David Wyss says, “For most U.S. companies, the weaker dollar has been a positive,” thanks to stronger U.S. exports and increased earnings from abroad. But he notes that the weakening greenback has ominous long-term implications for the domestic economy, including higher interest rates, inflation and slower economic growth.
Meanwhile, Standard & Poor’s analysts from around the world are seeing a new volatility in credit quality because of the rapid changes in the price of the dollar. In Canada, for instance, the combination of a strong Canadian dollar and weak American dollar have contributed to credit downgrades in forest and building products industries – even as the Canadian oil and gas industry is prospering from high prices, it notes.
Conversely, European oil and gas companies reporting in dollars are relatively unhurt by the declining dollar, while those reporting in local currencies are taking a hit. In the Pacific Rim, credit quality has remained more stable. Despite a weaker dollar, Australia and New Zealand’s export economies are focused on commodities, many of which are enjoying high prices. Japanese companies have benefited from having production in low-cost areas like China, as well as from large government dollar purchases, which have kept the yen from appreciating too rapidly.