With five of the 10 largest daily changes in the S&P 500 so far in 2014 occurring in the past few weeks, volatility returned to the U.S. equity market with some gusto, says Tim Edwards, director, index investment strategy, S&P Dow Jones Indices.
In a comment published Friday, Edwards notes that volatility measures across the globe are (nearly all) significantly up; Australia providing the exception.
The CBOE Volatility Index, otherwise known as VIX, returned to levels not seen in several years, breaking through 30 intraday on October 15 before falling back to close Thursday at 17.87. Both rise and fall in the VIX were precipitous and, despite returning to more normal levels, the market remains skittish.
The VIX is a measure of the stock market’s expectation of volatility, as implied by S&P 500 options.
It was, accordingly, a good month for those indices replicating long positions in VIX futures, Edwards notes. The short-term index is up by over 21%; the mid-term index gained by 11%. The S&P 500 Dynamic VEQTOR Index, which takes positions in both VIX futures and in equities, eked out a small gain; the S&P 500 lost over 3% during the same period.
“Markets were – broadly speaking – disappointed by the lack of outright bond purchases in the package of measures announced by the ECB earlier in the month. The geopolitical environment continues to present material risks to the downside and markets have reacted poorly to each reported case of Ebola in the developed world,” wrote Edwards.