Executives in the U.S. are resigned to the fact that the economy is tanking, according to a survey of CEOs in the financial services sector, released today.
The Financial Services Forum, a Washington, D.C.-based policy group made up of CEOs from 20 large financial institutions, surveyed its members on the state of the economy. It said that, on average, the CEOs surveyed saw an 88% chance of recession this year.
One out of three Forum members said a full recession was a certainty, according to the survey results.
Most cited continued turmoil in credit and housing markets as the main drag on the economy, along with rising protectionist sentiments and higher taxes.
“As the U.S. economy slows, trade and economic openness are more important than ever,” said Rob Nichols, president and COO the Forum. “With exports accounting for 40% of U.S. economic growth last year, trade is essential to strengthening the U.S. economy.”
The CEOs said they expected real GDP growth of 0.92% for 2008. The Forum’s one-year U.S. economic growth index fell quite drastically between last October and April, posting its first negative measure since the survey began in 2006.
Looking a little further down the road, the CEOs expectations are brighter. The 2-3 year U.S. growth outlook indicated the financial services leaders are expecting slow to moderate growth over the next two to three years.
As for the economy outside U.S. borders, the CEOs were more positive, despite some concern that that the slowdown in the U.S. and other industrialized nations could not be fully de-coupled. The CEOs saw expansion in China as the most significant contributor to global economic growth.
The CEOs tended to believe that the credit market crisis is far from over, according to the survey. On a scale of one to five, with one representing the view that the market turmoil has passed and five representing the view that there is significant turmoil still to come, Forum CEOs answered 3.38 on average.
As well, the members of the Forum expressed confidence in the U.S. Federal Reserve and the way it has handled the bout of market turmoil. The CEOs rated the Fed’s response at 3.93 on a scale of one to five.