The U.S. securities industry is forecasting solid economic growth for the year ahead, the Washington, D.C.-based Securities and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) announced on Tuesday.
SIFMA’s Economic Advisory Roundtable has released its latest survey of economists for 2015 and 2016, indicating that the industry’s forecasters are expecting the U.S. economy will grow 2.5% both this year and next. The call for 2015 represents an increase from the 2.2% gross domestic product growth forecast at mid-year, and this is expected to drive the first U.S. interest rate hike on Wednesday Dec. 16.
Against this background, U.S. employment is expected to continue to improve, and the forecast for “headline” inflation is expected to be 0.3% for 2015, and 1.4% for 2016, the SIFMA Roundtable says.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to raise rates this week, the SIFMA Roundtable says, citing labour market conditions as the most important factor in the FOMC’s decision. However, the future pace of tightening isn’t necessarily aggressive. “The tightening will be slower than even the FOMC expects. The economy is still fragile, especially overseas,” notes one survey respondent.
Fed interest rate policy is considered the most important factor impacting U.S. economic growth, followed by private credit conditions and business confidence, the SIFMA Roundtable notes. Upside risks include the possibility of increasing consumer demand. On the downside, the main concern is the negative impact of a downshift in global economic growth and the stronger U.S. dollar.
In terms of oil prices, the SIFMA Roundtable puts a 40% chance on West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices being in the range of between US$41 and US$50 a barrel at mid-2016. It also estimated that WTI would settle at an equilibrium price of $64.80 per barrel three years from now, assuming continued moderate global growth.
Corporate tax reform was cited as the policy issue that could have the greatest potential impact on the U.S. economy, followed distantly by immigration reform, and the completion of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal.