Trump regulatory changes may not be a win for banks: Fitch

It is unclear whether a wholesale repeal could pass or what a partial repeal may encompass

By: James Langton
November 10, 2016 November 10, 2016
14:10

Efforts to roll back recent regulatory reforms in the U.S. financial sector would likely not be a positive for the banks, nor would a slower return to higher interest rates, says report published Thursday by New York City-based Fitch Ratings.

During the election campaign U.S. President-elect Donald Trump promised to undo recent regulatory reforms in the U.S. financial sector, such as the Dodd-Frank Act, the report notes.

However, most aspects of that law have already been implemented, “and it is unclear whether a wholesale repeal could pass or what a partial repeal may encompass,” the report says.

Moreover, some of the most controversial aspects of the reform, such as the Volcker Rule, and the introduction of resolution authority, have generally been good for the banks, the report adds. “The reduction in proprietary trading activity linked to Volcker has been largely positive for banks,” the report says, “while the resolution process has been largely positive for banks’ governance.”

Additionally, it’s not clear whether financial sector regulatory reform will actually be a priority for the new administration, the report notes, and adds that critical rules, such as capital and liquidity requirements for banks, are typically set by banking regulators in the U.S., not by legislators.

“The U.S. has adopted Basel III and those requirements will continue to be implemented, regardless of the administration,” the report says. “Therefore, while aspects of [Dodd-Frank] may be peeled back, core banking regulation is unlikely to change.”

The report also cautions banks about the possibility of a slower return to higher interest rates. Increased policy uncertainty in the near term could cause the U.S. Federal Reserve Board to “raise rates at a slower pace than previously expected over the coming year,” the report says.

“This would delay any positive operating leverage from rate hikes out further, as the impact tends to be lagged. Overall, Fitch expects that incremental interest rate increases would be positive for banks’ net interest margins,” it concludes.