The Bank of Montreal and Royal Bank of Canada stand to benefit most from the U.S. election results, while the Bank of Nova Scotia faces increased strategic risk, says Morningstar DBRS.
Overall, the credit fundamentals of the Big Six banks shouldn’t be significantly affected by the outcome of the U.S. election, the rating agency said in a research note Thursday.
However, the likely policy shifts that accompany the new Donald Trump administration — such as lower corporate taxes, lighter regulation and higher tariffs — will impact the banks differently, it suggested.
“In our view, Bank of Montreal (BMO) and Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) are likely to benefit the most among the Big Six from the Trump presidency,” DBRS said.
The rating agency said BMO has “large commercial lending and growing investment banking in the U.S. that could gain from Trump’s reshoring and from increased capital markets activity, while RBC’s wealth management as well as commercial lending is positioned to grow in the coming years.”
Conversely, the threat of rising protectionism poses a potential headwind to Scotiabank, DBRS said.
“The Trump presidency could present unique risks to the Bank of Nova Scotia, which earns more than 20% from its earnings in the U.S. and Mexico, a percentage that is expected to grow further in the coming years,” the rating agency said.
In particular, DBRS said negative changes to the existing free trade agreement between Canada, the U.S. and Mexico, which expires in 2026, “could make [Scotiabank’s] new strategy less compelling, affecting its future growth opportunities in the North American corridor.”
Shifts in the U.S. regulatory environment for banks, including the prospect of lower capital requirements, should have a limited impact on the Big Six banks, given that their capital requirements are determined by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) on a consolidated basis, including their U.S. operations, DBRS said.
“Nevertheless, the new U.S. administration’s approach to the still pending Basel III Endgame rules may affect Canada,” the rating agency said.
OSFI has already delayed certain capital reforms in response to similar actions in the U.S. and Europe, and DBRS noted that “OSFI will continue to monitor the implementation progress of these reforms across jurisdictions, considering both competitive balance in the banking sector and the soundness of Canada’s capital regime.”
The prospect of a more deal-friendly approach to mergers and acquisitions in the U.S. banking sector should be neutral for the Big Six, “although, [Scotiabank] could potentially benefit from these changes as it has embarked on further expansion in the U.S.,” the rating agency noted.
Finally, it said the impact of higher tariffs in the Canadian banks’ loan books and their customers’ supply chains “remains uncertain.”
While DBRS expects to see a targeted increase in tariffs, it cautioned that “the imposition of widespread tariffs could adversely impact many sectors and raise inflationary pressures.”