Source: The Canadian Press

Investors could find a reason to extend last week’s strong advance on North American stock markets if U.S. second-quarter corporate earnings, the first of which are expected Monday, live up to high expectations.

“If we can get some confirmation from the earnings and then the stocks rally on that, it will be a very good sign that we’ll have a decent summer,” said Blair Falconer, portfolio manager at HSBC Securities.

North American markets finished higher last week, with the TSX up 3.34% and the Dow industrials ahead 5.28% as bargain hunters moved in following big slides of over 4% the previous week.

Markets are still down sharply from their 2010 highs and investors hope strong earnings and revenues will reverse recent sentiment that the global economic recovery will be slower than thought.

Analysts are expecting a lot from the second quarter — estimates compiled by Bloomberg have earnings at Standard and Poor’s 500 index companies jumping 34% in 2010, up from an estimate of 27% at the end of March.

“The thing is, a lot of these earnings will be up quite a bit just because they were so depressed last year,” said Colin Cieszynski, market analyst at CMC Markets Canada.

“As the year goes on, it will get harder for them to beat but in Q1 you had some big increases up from very depressed levels. So it’s like the stock market, you can get that big snapback initially but it’s not sustainable past a certain point.”

Another reason for high expectations is that companies have not felt they had to prepare markets for disappointments during the so-called confessional season that often precedes earnings announcements.

“Guidance has been extremely quiet,” observed Serge Pepin, director of investments, BMO Investments.

Aluminum giant Alcoa Inc. will be the first Dow industrials component to report its earnings after the markets close on Monday. Analysts expect the company to report earnings of 19 cents a share, compared with a loss of 26 cents a share for the second quarter last year.

At the same time, a miss by Alcoa wouldn’t herald a slew of disappointments since the resource company’s results are bound to be affected by lower commodity prices, which have been impacted by doubts about the pace of a recovery.

What could be more important for sentiment is earnings from a slew of major U.S. banks, including J.P. Morgan Chase on Thursday and Citigroup on Friday. Investors will be looking beyond basic earnings and revenue to see how much loan loss provisions has shrunk — or grown.

Arguably the most important earnings report of the week will come from General Electric at the end of the week. The company is viewed as a bellwether stock because its presence extends to many areas. It builds trains, jet engines and appliances and its GE Capital is one of the world’s largest financial companies.

Worries about the pace of recovery have sent its stock down about 20% since early April. Investors expect GE to hand in earnings of 27 cents a share, up a penny from a year ago.

Quarterly corporate earnings in Canada tend to lag U.S. reports by three weeks or so.

Toronto-listed companies are expected to put in a far more modest performance for the second quarter.

“The TSX is looking at a 10% rise from a year ago,” Pepin said.

One reason for a more modest expectation is the fact that the TSX is overwhelmingly weighted in favour of resource companies and banks.

And with energy and mining companies dealing with weaker prices he said that expectations are higher for the financials.

Pepin also observed that hopes for a strong second quarter follow what turned out to be a positive first quarter earnings season.

“Look at Q1 earnings, the season itself was relatively good but it was overshadowed by what was happening in Greece and throughout Europe,” he said, referring to the government debt crisis that held investor attention through much of April and May.

“We sort of looked to what was happening overseas and got scared more than anything else, that’s why we sold off — and by ignoring the good stuff.”

Pepin worries that investors are losing sight of good news and added it is important to remember “that there is still growth in the economy and interest rates aren’t about to go any higher at this point, notwithstanding perhaps another bump by the Bank of Canada.”

And even if the central bank raises rates July 20, it would likely be only a quarter point and “you’re still looking at historically low interest rates.”