This week is expected to a light week for economic news in both Canada and the U.S., with little scheduled on the calendar.
Despite a lack of obvious movers for the stock markets, investors will be looking for some reassurances that the North American economies are continuing to recover.
Markets will be digesting two disappointing jobs figures for Canada and the United States, released last Friday.
Statistics Canada reported that a total of 11,000 jobs were lost in August, leaving the unemployment rate unchanged at seven per cent. These figures were a far cry from economists’ expectations that 10,000 jobs were added last month.
The number of Canadian private-sector employees fell by 112,000 in August — the worst drop on record, even during the last recession.
“Supposedly, businesses were engaged in massive job cutting despite the recent surge in exports, an uptrend in housing starts, and impressive buying of discretionary items like plane tickets and vehicles,” said Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC World Markets, in a note.
“If income growth is as weak as the jobs trend suggests, we’re going to need a new act soon, and export growth, with the accompanying hiring, will be key,” he added.
The U.S. churned out a similarly disappointing jobs report.
The Labor Department says American employers added just 142,000 jobs in August, ending a six-month streak of adding more than 200,000 jobs per month and posting the smallest gain in eight months.
Economists had forecast that the American economy created about 220,000 jobs last month.
Yet despite the soft readings on the jobs front, BMO Capital Markets chief economist Doug Porter said markets are not too worried yet that this is the beginning of a long-term trend.
“While U.S. job growth was disappointing and Canada’s was dismal in August, this doesn’t detract from the bigger picture that the North American economy looks to be rounding into better shape overall,” Porter said in a report.
“However, it does suggest that both the Fed and the Bank of Canada will continue to be entirely comfortable sticking with the current monetary plan well into 2015.”
The U.S. Federal Reserve has been watching for continued signs of job gains for clues on when it can begin to raise short-term interest rates. Once a timeline becomes clearer, markets will look to Fed chair Janet Yellen for hints on when a possible hike might occur.
“Yellen is good with prescribing what is going to happen,” said Sadiq Adatia, chief investment officer at Sun Life Global Investments.
“She’s not going to be like her predecessor who was more evasive. She will give markets more lead time before she does something. It shouldn’t be a good shock… that should be good for the market.”
Other events investors will be watching out for this week will be the latest Canadian building permit numbers and housing starts data.
Economists expect housing starts to come in around 195,000 in August, down slightly from 198,000 in July — still showing signs that Canadian housing market is faring better than expected.
In the U.S., investors will await the latest wholesale trade inventories, weekly jobless claims and retail sales figures.
On the corporate front, it’ll be a big week for Canadian retail earnings. Empire Co. (TSX:EMP.A), the parent company of Sobeys; dollar store operator Dollarama (TSX:DOL), retailer Hudson’s Bay Company (TSX:HBC) and yogawear maker Lululemon (NASDAQ:LULU) were all scheduled to release their latest results this week.