Source: The Canadian Press

Economic data and corporate profits will guide investors this week as the Canadian companies begin reporting fourth-quarter earnings in earnest and the market sees the latest take on U.S. economic growth.

Earnings from the two major railroads — Canadian National Railways (TSX:CN) and Canadian Pacific Railway (TSX:CP) — are expected on Wednesday and fertilizer giant Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (TSX:POT) on Thursday.

Amid growing demand for fertilizer, Potash Corp. shares have surged from a low of just under $90 last July, a couple of weeks before BHP Billiton made its unsuccessful bid for the company, to a high of about $172 early last week.

“At $170, it’s trading above the highest it traded during the whole BHP Billiton takeover attempt,” said Colin Cieszynsky, market analyst at CMC Markets Canada.

“That’s the biggest thing you have to watch out for now is fear of disappointment.”

But Cieszynski thinks the near-term prospects for Potash Corp. are positive.

“The fallout we’ll see from the droughts in Europe last year and the floods in Australia is poor crops or wiped out crops and because of this we would expect to see a lot of planting,” he said.

“The next quarter, couple of quarters could be spectacular for them.”

Cieszynski noted the railroads face a greater challenge than a company like Potash because the Saskatoon-based company is driven by global supply and demand not the domestic economy.

“Some of the companies that are more reliant on the Canadian economy specifically might be a little bit more vulnerable between the rising loonie and the softening in the economy, especially in the last quarter,” he said.

At the same time, the bottom lines of CN and CP should benefit from the strong runup in commodity prices this past year.

The Canadian railway earnings follow a particularly strong report from U.S. railway Union Pacific last week. The largest U.S. rail carrier said its fourth-quarter profit soared 41% as the U.S. economy gained momentum and the company’s shipping volume increased.

Meanwhile, investors will look to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate announcement Wednesday for the central bank’s latest take on the economy.

Economists believe there is a zero probability that the Fed will lift rates from near zero, but they will look to see if conditions are positive enough for the central bank to consider ending its latest fiscal stimulus program early.

The Fed announced plans in November to buy $600 billion of long-term government bonds by mid-2011 in an attempt to boost lending.

The week is capped on Friday by the release of the first look at gross domestic product growth in the U.S. during the fourth quarter.

“It’s likely to be a lot better than the third quarter, possibly at least as much as 4%at an annualized pace,” said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics.

Such a strong showing would compare with a 2.6% annualized growth rate in the third quarter.

“Certainly things got a lot better after a summer slowdown towards the end of last year as retail sales growth picked up and that’s going to be reflected in stronger consumption growth numbers.”

But a commentary from BMO Capital Markets pointed out that the U.S. economy still faces a further slide in residential and commercial construction, lower inventory rebuilding and ongoing belt-tightening at the municipal level.