Source: The Canadian Press

Stock markets will be looking to U.S. corporate earnings to provide another leg up in the fall rally after data at the end of last week showed that dismal job creation is hobbling the American economic recovery.

Markets in Toronto and New York ended the week higher even as the September non-farm payrolls report in the U.S. showed that the economy shed 95,000 jobs, against the gain of 5,000 that had been expected, while the U.S. unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.6%.

Meanwhile, Statistics Canada reported that the economy shed 6,600 jobs last month, against the addition of 10,000 that economists were expecting. The unemployment rate surprisingly dropped one-tenth of a point to 8%.

The bad U.S. employment news further led investors to believe that the Federal Reserve will move next month to stimulate the economy by stepping up its purchases of government bonds, also known as quantitative easing.

Investors were also encouraged by a positive start to the third-quarter earnings season after Alcoa Inc., the largest U.S. aluminum company, beat analyst forecasts for both profits and revenue. Adding to the enthusiasm was a positive outlook from the company.

“I still think that positive earnings can trump this employment report, mainly because the report as most people acknowledge is a lagging indicator,” said Andrew Pyle, associate portfolio manager with ScotiaMcLeod in Peterborough, Ont.

“I think you may see a number of spins that come out of this … who cares if it is a lagging indicator, aren’t we more concerned about what companies are telling us in their guidance in the next three weeks?”

Investors are hoping that companies will top the approximately 24% increase in earnings expected for S&P 500 firms in the third quarter.

Major American companies reporting this week include a number of big players across a wide variety of industries.

Chip giant Intel Corp. and railway CSX report on Tuesday, JPMorgan Chase hands in results Wednesday, Advanced Micro Devices and Google release earnings on Thursday and the week is capped by earnings from conglomerate General Electric Corp., whose holdings encompass everything from jet engines to finance.

The Federal Reserve has its next meeting on interest rates early next month and investors hope to hear then what the central bank will do to help the economic recovery.

The Fed’s goal, if it starts buying bonds again, would be to drive interest rates down further from their already low levels and spark borrowing and spending. Lower rates could also eventually drive investors into riskier assets like stocks or into currencies in countries with more attractive interest rates.

However, Pyle said it is far from a sure thing that the Fed will embark on another round of quantitative easing, noting that “the New York Fed is still saying, ‘Look, we have to wait and see, we have a few more data points before we solidly come behind that.”’

On the other hand, Pyle said he feels it’s possible another round of easing won’t do much because “it’s already been priced into the market, the so-called buy the rumour, sell the fact.”

The first full week of October trading got off to a positive start with the TSX ahead 1.39% and the Dow industrials up 1.6%.

That was on top of a gain of 3.8% on the TSX during September while the Dow industrials ran up 7.7% during what is usually the worst trading month of the year. Markets were boosted by a slew of positive U.S. data, which helped alleviate concerns that the world’s biggest economy could slip back into recession.

Meanwhile, investors will chew over some key economic data during the week.

In Canada, the most important bit of data is the Merchandise Trade report for August. The July reading of a $2.7-billion deficit was the biggest on record.

But August could show improvement as vehicle production rose significantly during the month, which suggests exports got a lift.

Economists expect the trade balance to show a deficit of $2.3 billion for August.

In the U.S., investors will look to September retail figures. The market is looking for a 0.4% rise, the same as August.

They will also concentrate on the Fed’s minutes from its Sept. 21 meeting for further clues about the timing of quantitative easing.