The global speculative-grade default rate ticked up in January but is still expected to decline this year, according to a new report from Moody’s Investors Service Inc.
Specifically, the credit-rating agency reports that the speculative-grade default rate came in at 4.6% for the trailing 12-month period ended Jan. 31, up from 4.5% at the end of 2016.
There were 10 defaults among speculative-grade issuers in January Moody’s reports, including four companies in the oil and gas sector.
Nevertheless, Moody’s says that it still expects the global speculative-grade default rate to fall to 3% by the end of this year.
“After an elevated pace of defaults in the first half of 2016 as many energy companies suffered from the slump in oil prices, defaults eased in the second half as oil prices rose,” says Sharon Ou, vice president and senior credit officer at Moody’s, in a statement. “Going into 2017, we expect defaults in the energy sector to continue to abate, since many weak companies have already defaulted and remaining firms are for the most part healthier.”
On a global basis, Moody’s expects the oil and gas sector to fall to eighth place in terms of default rates. Instead, it foresees the metals and mining sector to experience the highest rate of defaults in the U.S., with the retail sector leading defaults in Europe.
Moody’s also notes that there were six defaults in the leveraged loan market in January while the global default rate in the high-yield market remained unchanged at 3.5% in the month.