Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services Friday lowered a number of its European sovereign ratings, including cutting France’s AAA rating, on fears that efforts by policymakers in region won’t be enough to address their fiscal problems.
The rating agency announced rating actions on 16 members of the Eurozone following completion of its review. It has lowered the long-term ratings on Cyprus, Italy, Portugal, and Spain by two notches; and lowered the long-term ratings on Austria, France, Malta, Slovakia, and Slovenia, by one notch. S&P also affirmed the long-term ratings on Belgium, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands.
“Today’s rating actions are primarily driven by our assessment that the policy initiatives that have been taken by European policymakers in recent weeks may be insufficient to fully address ongoing systemic stresses in the eurozone,” it said, noting that the stresses include: tightening credit conditions, an increase in risk premiums for a widening group of eurozone issuers, a simultaneous attempt to delever by governments and households, weakening economic growth prospects, and an open and prolonged dispute among European policymakers over the proper approach to address challenges.
“The outcomes from the EU summit on Dec. 9, 2011, and subsequent statements from policymakers, lead us to believe that the agreement reached has not produced a breakthrough of sufficient size and scope to fully address the eurozone’s financial problems,” it adds. “In our opinion, the political agreement does not supply sufficient additional resources or operational flexibility to bolster European rescue operations, or extend enough support for those eurozone sovereigns subjected to heightened market pressures.”
S&P says it also believes that the agreement is predicated on only a partial recognition of the source of the crisis. “In our view, however, the financial problems facing the eurozone are as much a consequence of rising external imbalances and divergences in competitiveness between the eurozone’s core and the so-called ‘periphery’,” it says. “As such, we believe that a reform process based on a pillar of fiscal austerity alone risks becoming self-defeating, as domestic demand falls in line with consumers’ rising concerns about job security and disposable incomes, eroding national tax revenues.”
The rating agency warns that it is increasingly likely that refinancing costs for certain countries may remain elevated, that credit availability and economic growth may further decelerate, and that pressure on financing conditions may persist.
The outlooks on the long-term ratings on Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovenia, and Spain are negative, indicating that there is at least a one-in-three chance that the rating will be lowered in 2012 or 2013. The outlooks on the long-term ratings on Germany and Slovakia are stable.
For sovereigns with negative outlooks, S&P says that downside risks persist and that a more adverse economic and financial environment could erode their relative strengths within the next year or two to a degree that could warrant a further downward revision of their long-term ratings.
It also worries that there is a risk that reform fatigue could be mounting, especially in those countries that have experienced deep recessions and where growth prospects remain bleak.