Total year-end outstandings of the Canadian short-term debt market increased modestly in 2004 after a five-year period of stability, says Dominion Bond Rating Service.

In its annual review of the Canadian short-term debt market released today, DBRS also predicts the market for Canadian short-term debt show grow moderately in 2005.

End-of-year total outstanding short-term debt fluctuated in a narrow range between $282 billion and $284 billion for 2000 through 2003, but finished 2004 at $292 billion, an increase of $8.1 billion over the prior year, DBRS says.

Corporate outstandings were up by $6.2 billion, or 15.2%, reversing a drop in 2003. Short-term securitized debt grew modestly by $3.2 billion. Bankers’ acceptances and government totals were essentially flat to last year, it reports.

The rating agency says that corporate outstandings increased significantly as the credit cycle continued to improve in 2004. “Finance companies and foreign banks led the way, and represented all of the growth in corporate outstandings,” it says. “Securitized outstandings grew despite increased trends towards term issuance in the ABS/RMBS markets. Government outstandings have been stable over time.”

Looking ahead, DBRS expects corporates will grow modestly in 2005 in accordance with the economy, and reflect the ongoing presence of finance companies and foreign banks to tap the commercial paper market.

“Banks have been very restrained in their borrowing for several years, so bankers’ acceptances are not expected to increase materially,” it says. “Demand for high quality securitized product has not abated, and should contribute to growth in this area. Auto companies and mortgage originators have continued to increase volumes through this funding channel, and very good asset quality and high volumes suggest additional growth is on its way.” However, DBRS says that volumes within this sector are difficult to forecast.

It also believes that total government issuance of short term-debt is expected to grow as the federal government gradually increases its exposure to short-term and/or floating-rate debt. This suggests that overall short-term debt outstandings are likely to increase again through 2005.