After two months of consecutive decline, Scotiabank’s commodity price index, which measures price trends in 32 of Canada’s major exports, bounced back in April, climbing 5.4% month over month.

The Index will likely surge to a new record in May – surpassing the previous peak in October 2005, when oil and natural gas prices soared in the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. A spectacular spike in base and precious metal prices from the end of March through May 12 — combined with stronger crude oil prices — will lead the index higher.

“Metals continue to be the story, with the metal and mineral index jumping by 10.2% in April to a level 34.1% above the previous peak in June 1988,” says Patricia Mohr, vice president and commodities specialist, Scotia Economics. “The metal and mineral index will surge further in May, despite a sharp mid-month correction that saw copper prices lose altitude as ‘momentum funds’ temporarily took profits.”

Although a copper price close to US$4 per pound is probably unsustainable, and prices may trade down to somewhat lower levels later this year, healthy world demand and tight supplies will likely keep copper prices exceptionally strong — though volatile — over the balance of 2006. Given the recent correction and little change in the fundamentals, the funds are now bidding up copper prices again. Interest in base metals as an ‘asset class’ vis-à-vis bonds and equities continues.

LME nickel prices have also soared, jumping from US$6.76 per pound in March to US$8.13 in April. Though prices corrected during the week of May 15, the decline was comparatively modest and, at US$10.30 on May 26, nickel has now more than recovered. Labour contract negotiations in Sudbury (now tentatively settled) and this year’s strong pick-up in global stainless steel demand have boosted nickel prices.

It should be noted that recent exceptionally high base metal prices are causing ‘liquidity’ and ‘credit’ problems for fabricators, who have been unable to pass along these high raw material prices to end-product manufacturers. This has contributed to a deferral of buying (for example, lower imports of copper into China in the first four months of 2006) and, in some cases, the temporary shutdown of copper fabricating plants in western Europe, South Korea and China.

“The oil and gas index also rebounded by 6% in April, as Canadian light and heavy crude oil prices rose in lagged response to West Texas Intermediate — which surged to a new record high of US$75.17 per barrel on April 21,” says Mohr. “Prices are likely to stay high, with projections for a difficult 2006 U.S. hurricane season keeping crude oil over US$70.”

Record commodity prices have raised fears that inflation, which has so far been well contained, may accelerate, leading to greater-than-expected tightening and, possibly excessive tightening, by the Federal Reserve Board and other central banks — substantially slowing the global economy. The May 17 release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index for April — indicating somewhat higher-than-anticipated ‘core’ inflation excluding food and energy — contributed to the recent equity market sell-off. At the same time, prospects for higher-than-expected interest rates temporarily lifted the U.S. dollar, triggering a correction in gold and silver prices.