Alberta, Saskatchewan and Ontario will lead economic growth among Canadian provinces next year, according to The Conference Board of Canada’s Provincial Outlook — Autumn 2003.

“The resource and construction sectors will drive growth in Alberta and Saskatchewan,” said Marie-Christine Bernard, Associate Director, Provincial Outlook, in a news release. “Ontario will recover somewhat from a difficult 2003 as the U.S. economy accelerates, but the strength of the Canadian dollar will hamper export performance.”

Sturdy domestic demand and massive investment in the oil sands will give Alberta real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 3.5%, highest among the provinces in 2004. Saskatchewan’s economy, which outgrew all provinces but Newfoundland and Labrador in 2003, will expand by 3.2% in 2004 on the strength of performance in the agriculture and construction sectors.

British Columbia will emerge from the doldrums to generate growth of 2.9% in 2004, as the manufacturing sector rebounds and as the impact of provincial government spending cuts subsides. Food manufacturing and construction will boost Manitoba’s growth rate to 2.8% next year.

Ontario’s GDP is expected to grow by 3.2% next year. Quebec will experience a more restrained 2.6% expansion, as the soaring dollar reins in export growth and provincial capital expenditures decline sharply.

Economic conditions in Atlantic Canada will be sluggish next year, except in New Brunswick, where large-scale developments in the energy sector and highway expansions will help to boost growth to 2.8%.

Declines in the construction sector will hold overall real GDP growth to about 2% in each of Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island and Nova Scotia. Moderate gains in oil production from the Hibernia and Terra Nova fields will limit economic growth over the near term in Newfoundland and Labrador.