Should Greece pull out of the eurozone, the region would suffer a significant shock but the country’s exit likely would not trigger a systemic crisis, says Fitch Ratings, Inc. in a new report.
Fitch notes that the eurozone has developed mechanisms to prevent a possible sovereign default, and to alleviate sovereign-to-sovereign contagion, since the region’s crisis in 2012. This is when European policymakers were forced to bail out Greece amid such worries as a return to recession and talk of the eurozone’s possible dissolution. Moreover, concerns about other eurozone sovereigns’ creditworthiness have eased since 2012, it says.
As a result, Fitch says the risk that a Greek exit or “Grexit” triggers a chain reaction leading to the eurozone’s breakup is unlikely.
The report states the immediate risk of Greece leaving the eurozone was eased by last month’s agreement with its creditors. However, it says “the uncompromising stance taken by both sides at times before the agreement highlights the possibility of a future policy mistake.”
Fitch isn’t expecting a “Grexit” but acknowledges it remains a risk as more detailed negotiations take place and as the Greek government tries to maintain domestic support for the deal it secures.
If Greece does exit, it would likely trigger a default on at least part of the country’s debt obligations, according to Fitch. However, other eurozone sovereigns have limited exposure to Greece, so government debt-to-GDP ratios would not be directly affected. It also suggests the costs to sovereigns, due to a default on bonds held by the European Central Bank (ECB), would be manageable. The impact on foreign banks would also be limited, the report states, because they have already absorbed losses from 2012 and have since reduced their Greek risk.
“Market reactions are hard to predict,” Fitch notes. “If peripheral yields rose sharply, government debt dynamics could be damaged.”
“Grexit would demonstrate that membership of the single currency requires political acceptance of a tight fiscal stance and unpopular reforms to create an economy able to adjust internally,” Fitch concludes. “There is no other obvious candidate for exit, but in the medium term there would be greater exit risk for countries where political commitment to reform weakened. But Grexit might also spur a strengthening of eurozone institutions and therefore the currency union.”