After passing the 40 million mark in 2024, the Canadian population is now on track to top 59 million by 2074, according to new projections from Statistics Canada.
On Tuesday, the national statistical agency released a revised series of projections that reflects recent demographic trends — which have shifted dramatically in recent years amid record-low fertility rates and record-high immigration levels — but maintains long-term assumptions about fertility, mortality and immigration.
Under a medium-growth scenario, StatCan projected that the population would reach 59.3 million by 2074, while a low-growth trajectory would result in the population rising to just 45.2 million, and a high-growth scenario would push the population to 80.8 million by 2074.
In all these scenarios, immigration would be the primary driver of population growth, and the aging of the population will continue too, it noted.
For instance, in the medium-growth scenario, the number of Canadians aged 85 and older would more than double between 2031 and 2051, surging to 2.8 million from 1.2 million over the period.
“This rapid growth would be a result of the baby-boom generation (born between 1946 and 1965) reaching this oldest age group,” StatCan said.
Additionally, the agency indicated that the share of the overall population that lives in Alberta is projected to increase in all scenarios between 2024 and 2049, with the share for Quebec, Newfoundland and Labrador, and Yukon declining. Other inter-provincial shifts would depend on the scenario, it noted.