Population growth slows, pressures ease

The quarterly growth rate slowed to its lowest level since 2020 when pandemic-related border restrictions were in place, StatCan reported — continuing a slowdown from the peak growth rate of 1.1% in the third quarter of 2023.

A decline in non-permanent residents, which dropped by 28,341 in the quarter, drove the slowdown, it noted.

As a result, the share of the population comprised of temporary residents ticked down to 7.3% from 7.4% in the previous quarter — yet this remains a long way from the 5% share that the federal government is targeting.

Despite the sharp slowdown in the second half growth, on an annual basis, the population still grew by 1.8%, StatCan said.

While this was down from the 3.1% rate posted in 2023, it remains high on a historical basis.

Immigration continues to drive these trends, accounting for 97.3% of the annual population growth, the agency said.

Additionally, the economic effects of slowing population growth are starting to emerge, BMO Capital Markets suggested in a research note.

“On the ground, this can be felt in some pockets of consumer spending, and in the rental market, where demand is easing right as substantial supply is reaching completion in some major cities,” it said.

BMO also noted that intra-provincial migration remains strong too, with Alberta attracting the bulk of this activity. The province leads provincial population growth by “a wide margin,” it said, noting that it recorded a 3.5% rise in 2024, compared with 1.5% in Ontario and 1.7% in B.C.

“Outflows out of B.C. and Ontario, and into Alberta and Atlantic Canada continue highlight that much of the movement right now is because of affordability, not job-market conditions,” BMO said.