Plunge in U.S. retail sales in April

“It’s like a hurricane came and levelled the entire economy, and now we’re trying to get it back up and running,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist for the consultancy Maria Fiorini Ramirez.

Shapiro said he thinks retail sales should rebound somewhat as states and localities reopen their economies. But he said overall sales would remain depressed “because there is going to be a big chunk of the lost jobs that don’t come back.”

The sharpest declines from March to April were at clothing, electronics and furniture stores. A long-standing migration of consumers toward online purchases is accelerating, with that segment posting a 8.4% monthly gain. Measured year over year, online sales surged 21.6%.

Other than online, not a single retail category was spared in April. Auto dealers suffered a monthly drop of 13%. Furniture stores absorbed a 59% plunge. Electronics and appliance stores were down over 60%. Retailers that sell building materials posted a drop of roughly 3%. After panic buying in March, grocery sales fell 13%.

Clothing-store sales tumbled 79%, department stores 29%. Restaurants, some of which are already starting to close permanently, endured a nearly 30% decline despite shifting aggressively to takeout and delivery orders.

For a retail sector that had already been reeling, a back-to-back free-fall in spending poses a grave risk. Department stores, restaurants and auto dealerships are in danger. Nearly $1 of every $5 spent at retailers last month went to non-store retailers, evidence that the pandemic has accelerated the shift toward online shopping.

In the past two weeks, J.Crew, Neiman Marcus and Stage Stores have filed for bankruptcy protection. J.C. Penney appears on the verge of following them. UBS estimates that roughly 100,000 stores could shutter over the next five years.

“The whole economic model is unraveling,” Neil Saunders, managing director of GlobalData Retail. “This is going to be very painful. For some, it’s going to be fatal.”

Retailers are being imperiled not only by business shutdowns mandated by states and localities but also by a record loss of 36 million jobs over the past two months. The unemployed typically pull back sharply on retail purchases.

An April analysis by a group of academic economists found that a one-month closure could wipe out 31% of non-grocer retailers. A four-month closure could force 65% to close.

The plunge in retail spending is a key reason why the U.S. economy is contracting. Retail sales account for roughly half of all consumer spending, which fuels about 70% of economic activity. The rest of consumer spending includes services such as cellphone and internet contracts, gym memberships and child care.

With few Americans shopping, travelling, eating out or otherwise spending normally, economists are projecting that the gross domestic product  —  the broadest gauge of economic activity  —  is shrinking in the April-June quarter at a roughly 40% annual rate. That would be the deepest quarterly drop on record.

The pandemic is not only depressing overall retail sales but also forcing shifts in what people do buy as they adjust to working at home. CSolutions, which monitors sales of packaged goods, has noted a shift to comfort and convenience. Sales of baking flour, tomato sauces, ice cream, premixed cocktails and breakfast sausages have surged from a year ago.

Pajama-buying rocketed 143% from March to April, according to Adobe Analytics, which monitors online retailers. By contrast, sales of pants, jackets and bras have declined.

Spending tracked by Opportunity Insights suggests that consumer spending might have bottomed out around mid-April before beginning to tick up slightly, at least in the clothing and general merchandise categories. But spending on transportation, restaurants, hotels and arts and entertainment remains severely depressed.

Credit card purchases tracked by JPMorgan Chase found that spending on such necessities as groceries, fuel, phone service and auto repair declined 20% on a year-over-year basis. By contrast, spending on “non-essentials,” such as meals out, airfare and personal services like salons or yoga classes, plummeted by a much worse 50%.