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Latest news in Research and Markets

Can the Fed pull off a soft landing?

Economists have been downgrading their probabilities of a U.S. recession

Stacking interest rate blocks

Scotia raises forecast on population surge

Demographics are boosting growth, but the rate outlook remains unchanged

AI button

Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft agree to White House AI safeguards

Some of the commitments call for third-party oversight of commercial AI systems

Statistics Canada says retail sales up 0.2% to $66 billion in May

Economists expect spending to slow in the second half

Representation of household debt

Personal borrowing surges, credit cards slow

Annual mortgage debt growth slowest since 2011, StatsCan says

A global network of investment points

Sovereign debt costs rising: Fitch

Still-rising rates have governments' interest expenses surging

Judge's gavel with magnifying glass on black.

U.S. class action activity rises in first half: report

Banking sector turmoil, crypto industry facing investor litigation

Now hiring sign

U.S. jobless claims continue to fall

Since the pandemic hit, U.S. employers have added jobs at a blistering pace

investment growth

U.S. sustainable funds face further outflows

Assets rise, but outflows continue in Q2, Morningstar reports

The facade of the Royal Exchange in the City of London

U.K. inflation falls by more than anticipated to a 15-month low

Fuel prices were the biggest driver behind the drop

merger

U.S. bank mergers on hold for now: Fitch

Regulatory, financial and economic headwinds all weigh on deal activity

stressed businessman

Shadow bank stress lurks, Moody’s warns

Tighter financial conditions pose growing threat to non-banks that may spread throughout financial sector

Housing starts surged in June to slightly reverse downward trend

The monthly increase was the largest in a decade

map of Canada

Foreign investors pile into government debt: StatsCan

Cross-border portfolio flows rise in May as offshore investors add federal paper, Canadian investors retreat

Report shows economic case for high immigration, but warns of housing tradeoffs

Desjardins analysis argues that immigration is needed to offset the economic impacts of an aging population

calculator and pie charts

Wholesale sales saw largest monthly increase since November 2021

StatsCan reported sales were up in four of the seven subsectors that it tracks

Houses

CREA downgrades sales forecast as interest rates weigh on buyers

Association says it expects 464,239 properties to trade hands this year, a 6.8% decrease from last year

British Columbia wildfires

Wildfires catch the attention of carbon credit funds

Managers face risks from destructive wildfire season

IRS tax

IRS collects $38 million from more than 175 high income tax delinquents

Agency appears to be making a case for sustained funding as it tries to avert budget cuts

Inflation

As inflation inches closer to 3%, economists warn progress will stall this year

New projections suggest inflation will return to 2% target in mid-2025 – six months longer than the central bank previously forecast

Manufacturing

Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales up 1.2% at $72.9 billion in May

Chemical products and motor vehicles were winners, while primary metals fell

Mortgage signing

Shorter fixed-rate mortgages take spotlight as borrowers feel pinch of higher rates

By January of this year, variable-rate mortgages had fallen to 16.7% of new and renewed mortgages, while 1-5 year fixed-rate mortgages constituted 64%

What the latest interest rate hike means for variable-rate mortgages

Here's a by-the-numbers look at payment amounts

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Hybrid work could amount to US$800-billion hit to office real estate: McKinsey

Office attendance in major global cities is still 30% lower than in 2019, report says

Average asking price for rental unit hits record high in June: Rentals.ca

Prices were highest in Vancouver, Burnaby