While market volatility will continue in the very near term, it will begin to decline from recent record levels and market indices will rise in 2009, TD Waterhouse predicts.

The brokerage firm released its 2009 Investment Outlook on Thursday., offering insight into future market trends and their impact on investment portfolios.

“Looking ahead to 2009, the key questions on the minds of investors are when the heavy volatility will end, what the ‘floor level’ of the current bear market will be, and when will stocks begin to recover,” said Bob Gorman, chief portfolio strategist, in a release.

After a decline of about 49% from its peak, Gorman said the TSX is bottoming in this range and will advance in 2009. “Factors contributing to this outlook are largely the same as those cited for the U.S. stock market. As in the U.S., large cap stocks will represent the best risk/reward relationship.”

Typical bond returns are expected to be in the same 4% to 4.5% range in 2009 as in 2008. Investment grade corporate bonds will outperform government issues in 2009.

The U.S. stock market, after experiencing continuing pressure in the near term due to tax loss selling, and hedge fund and mutual fund redemptions, will rise in 2009.

Large cap stocks are once again recommended in 2009: “Given their greater financial stability and low valuations, we feel that large caps offer the best prospective risk/reward relationship in 2009,” said Gorman.

“Small caps are more economically sensitive and respond more acutely to the ups and downs of the economy,” continued Gorman. He pointed out that historically, they outperform large caps coming out of a recession, but the extremely low valuations attached to the highest quality large cap companies gives them the best potential returns relative to risk in 2009.

European and Japanese equities will record positive returns in 2009. While current economic weakness and its impact on corporate earnings is the major headwind for both markets, valuations are very low, especially in Europe where P/E multiples are in the 10-11 range and dividend yields approximate 4%.

Caution regarding emerging markets stocks is warranted in 2009, Goman said. “While there will likely be a superb buying opportunity for emerging markets in the not-too-distant future, caution is recommended for the present and avoidance of direct exposure.”

IE