Amid expectations for slower demand, and improvements in supply, Moody’s Investors Service has reduced its assumptions for both crude oil and natural gas prices over the next year or so.
The rating agency said today that it has lowered the price assumptions it uses for rating purposes on Brent crude oil to US$90/barrel through 2015, which represents a $5 drop from its previous assumptions for 2015. It also reduced its assumptions for West Texas Intermediate crude to US$85/bbl from US$90 through 2015. For 2016 and beyond, its assumptions remain US$90/bbl for Brent crude and US$85 for WTI crude, which is unchanged from previous assumptions.
“Oil prices dropped during the summer of 2014, reflecting slower economic growth in some of the world’s major economies, a strengthened US dollar and growing non-OPEC supply. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East eased moderately, allowing the region to increase oil production and supply the market with more crude,” it says.
Looking ahead, Moody’s notes that, “Concerns about a slowdown in the pace of growth in China, and weaker economic conditions in Brazil, Russia and much of Europe point to a slight retreat in crude demand as well.”
On the supply side, shale and unconventional oil development and production is continuing at a rapid pace in North America, it says. “New pipeline and transportation infrastructure continue to deliver crude more easily from producers to their downstream customers, reducing bottlenecks and limiting price differentials between WTI and the Brent world benchmark,” Moody’s notes.
At the same time, it also lowered its price assumption for North American benchmark Henry Hub natural gas to US$3.75 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) through 2015—from its earlier assumption of US$4.25/MMBtu. Its assumptions for 2016 and beyond remain unchanged, at US$4.00/MMBtu. It also cut its price assumptions for natural gas liquids (NGLs) to US$30 per barrel of oil equivalent (boe) through 2015 from US$34/boe.
“North American natural gas prices have dropped after unusually mild summer weather, which reduced the use of air conditioning—a key factor in the region’s summer natural gas demand—and permitted above-normal storage injections, necessary after last winter’s extreme cold significantly depleted storage,” Moody’s says.
“In the longer term, power producers—the greatest market for natural gas in North America—will gradually increase their demand for natural gas, switching from coal as new environmental regulations take effect, but natural gas prices will stay high enough to discourage near-term switching,” it concludes. “Natural gas prices in North America will rise eventually, with demand from new petrochemical plants and the start-up of facilities to liquefy natural gas for export, but not until later this decade.”
Moody’s notes that its price assumptions represent the baseline approximations that it uses to evaluate risk when analyzing credit conditions within the oil and natural gas industry. They are not forecasts.