The Maritime provinces and Manitoba are the only Canadian provinces that will post economic growth this year, according to report released Thursday by the Conference Board of Canada.

“The economies of Manitoba and the Maritime provinces are not prone to boom-bust cycles, so they have been sheltered from the downturn. Economic conditions deteriorated over the past few months in other provinces, especially in Ontario and Saskatchewan,” said Marie-Christine Bernard, associate director, Provincial Outlook.

“All provinces will recover slowly over the next year. Saskatchewan, British Columbia, Alberta and Ontario are expected to post the strongest growth in 2010.”

Fuelled by new infrastructure investment and lower income taxes, New Brunswick is expected to lead all provinces in 2009 with a 0.9% increase in real gross domestic product (GDP). The recent cancellation of a new gasoline refinery is not expected to negatively affect New Brunswick’s outlook this year, but “poses a downside risk to the province’s performance in 2010,” the Conference Board said.

Public spending is expected to help Prince Edward Island’s economy grow by 0.8% in 2009.

Nova Scotia will skirt recession in 2009, the Conference Board said. Real GDP is forecast to advance by 0.3% this year, thanks to increased government spending and non-residential investment — notably the $700 million Deep Panuke offshore natural gas project.

Manitoba’s ongoing construction boom will leading to GDP growth of 0.8% this year. The province’s mining and manufacturing sectors are, however, feeling the effects of the downturn, the Conference Board said.

Quebec’s exports will decline for the second straight year. The province’s job market, however, has held up compared to other provinces, and consumer spending is expected to show small growth this year. Real GDP is forecast to fall by 0.9% in 2009.

Real GDP in Ontario is expected to fall by 3.1% this year. A gradual recovery is expected in the last half of 2009, with consumer demand, private investment and housing demand expected to rebound next year.

After a stellar performance in 2008, Saskatchewan’s economy is forecast to decline by 2.7% in 2009. That’s a significant downward revision from growth of 0.2% in the Conference Board’s Spring 2009 outlook. “The major reasons for the decline are a massive reduction in potash extraction levels, combined with drought-like conditions in certain parts of the province,” the Conference Board said. “Next year, a rebound in the primary sector is expected to support real GDP growth of 3.5%, the strongest performance of any province.”

B.C.’s economy is expected to post its largest contraction in 27 years, a decline of 2.5%. But real GDP is forecast to grow by 3.4% next year, thanks to a comeback in energy and residential construction, combined with a modest recovery in forestry and manufacturing and the stimulus effects of the 2010 Olympic Winter Games.

Alberta’s economy will contract 2.7% this year, but the province’s struggles will be short-lived, as growth of 3.3% is forecast in 2010.

“Newfoundland and Labrador faces more job losses and deeper production cuts than any other province, leading to a steep 3.4% decline in real GDP this year,” the Conference Board said. The province will also experience the slowest recovery of all the provinces in 2010.

IE