Investor optimism rose slightly in August, following three months of steep declines, according to UBS’ Index of Investor Optimism. The index, a joint effort of UBS and the Gallup Organization came in at 52, up six points from 46 in July.
Thirty-nine percent of those surveyed said they are optimistic about the prospects for the financial markets over the next 12 months, up from 32% in
July. Optimism about economic growth over the same period held steady at 48%, compared to 47% last month.
Conversely, investor’s expectations for short-term return, over the next 12 months, fell to an all-time low, declining to 7.4% in August, from 9.6% last month. The decline in expectations was most pronounced among the least experienced investors – those with less than five years in the markets – falling to 9.2% in August from 14.7% last month. Expectations for short-term return among the most experienced investors, those with more than 20 years in the markets, decreased only slightly to 5.7% this month from 6.0% in July.
At the same time, investors report an average return rate of -2.4% on their portfolio over the past year, the lowest level in the survey’s history.
A majority of those surveyed, 54%, say now is a good time to invest in the markets, up from 50% in July. Indeed, 63% of investors believe the stock markets will be higher a year from now, compared with 56% last month. Moreover, 59% of investors say they are more optimistic about the financial markets in the U.S. than in Europe (14%), Japan (11%), or countries known as the emerging markets (7%).
In August, investors were polled about the circumstances that can have a large impact on improving conditions in the financial markets.
Two-thirds, cite an overall improvement in economic conditions and say aggressive enforcement of current laws against corporate fraud. Sixty-three percentlook to a significant improvement in corporate earnings. Just 37% of investors say that further interest rate cuts will have a large impact on improving market conditions.
The survey was conducted from August 1 to August 15. The sampling included 1,012 investors randomly selected from across the U.S.
Long-term investor optimism up
But short-term view pessimistic according to UBS survey
- By: IE Staff
- August 27, 2002 August 27, 2002
- 09:45