Payrolls rebounded in July, and the number of job vacancies continued to decline, according to new data from Statistics Canada.
The national statistical agency reported that employment numbers rose by 32,800 in the month, reversing a drop of 22,900 in June, and pushing the annual gain to 157,700.
The bulk of the gains came in the health-care and public-administration sectors, it noted. Five of 20 sectors recorded job gains, while another five reported declines, and 10 sectors had relatively flat payroll numbers.
StatCan said the crop of unfilled jobs fell by 22,400 in July to 526,900, which is down 47.5% from the peak of over 1 million in May 2022.
Alongside the decline in open jobs, the job vacancy rate, which represents the number of unfilled jobs as a share of total labour demand, continued to fall.
In a research note, National Bank Financial (NBF) said the latest labour market data highlight the effects of still-tight monetary policy.
“Without strong hiring in the public sector in 2024, the damage to the labour market would have been much greater,” it said. Private sector employment has risen just 0.2% this year, while the labour force grew by 2.0% — conditions usually evident only in a recession.
“The private sector job vacancy rate has plummeted and was at its lowest level since 2016,” it noted.
Given the prevailing conditions, NBF said it expects the jobless rate to rise to 7% over the next six months, as “restrictive monetary policy will prevent the labour market from stabilizing, contrary to what many forecasters believe.”