The global speculative default rate continues to rise, but is expected to top out soon and reverse course, Moody’s Investors Service said Wednesday.

The rating agency says that the trailing 12-month global speculative-grade default rate finished the third quarter at 12.0%, up from 10.6% in the previous quarter. A year ago, the global default rate stood at only 2.8%. Measured on a dollar volume basis, the global speculative-grade bond default rate closed at 18.1% in the third quarter, up from 16.5% at the end of the previous quarter, it notes.

Moody’s forecasting model now predicts that the rate will rise to a peak of 12.5% in the fourth quarter of this year and then decline sharply to 4.5% a year from now. “Moody’s baseline model forecast for sharply declining default rates over the next year assumes a sustained modest economic recovery with the U.S. unemployment rate reaching a peak of 10.5% in 2010,” says, Kenneth Emery, Moody’s director of corporate default research. “The forecast is consistent with previous credit cycles where, prior to the 1991 and 2002 peaks, default rates declined to close to their long-run historical average of roughly 5% in the following 12-18 months.”

In all, a total of 50 Moody’s-rated corporate debt issuers defaulted in the third quarter, down from 89 in the first quarter and 83 in the second quarter, the firm says. Last year, only 62 defaults were recorded in the first three quarters of the year.

The automotive industry was the worst performer in the third quarter as seven companies in that sector defaulted, Moody’s says, followed by the advertising/publishing/printing media with six defaults. By region, 39 of the third quarter defaulters were based in North America while eight were from Europe. The remaining defaulters were domiciled in South America and Asia.

For the coming year, Moody’s indicates that the consumer transportation sector will be the most troubled in the U.S. and the durable consumer goods sector will have the highest default rate in Europe.

Moody’s speculative-grade corporate distress index — which measures the percentage of rated issuers that have debt trading at distressed levels — stood at 28.1% at the end of the third quarter, down from 36.3% in the previous quarter.

IE