Source: The Canadian Press

If analysts are even close to being right about how many jobs the economy created in September, the Bank of Canada’s push to raise interest rates this summer will go into hibernation for the winter.

There is an unusually solid consensus among economists that about 10,000 jobs were added in September.

BMO Capital Markets economist Douglas Porter says that’s not even enough to absorb the rise in the number of people entering Canada’s labour force each month.

As a result, the Statistics Canada monthly jobs report to be released early Friday may show the unemployment rate flat at 8.1% or rising slightly in August. .

That Statistics Canada report on September employment will be considered by the Bank of Canada as it assesses whether to raise interest rates another notch at its Oct. 19 meeting.

Analysts say the central bank will find it hard to justify another rate increase, which would be the fourth since June.

The bank’s policy rate is currently at 1%, after three quarter-point hikes from an all-time low of 0.25%. The Bank of Canada pushed its short-term lending rates as low as possible during the recession to stimulate the economy.

Canada’s economy showed remarkable growth the last three months of 2009 and first quarter of this year but the pace has slowed since then.

Exports have sagged because of a weak recovery in the United States, which has slowed demand for autos, auto parts, lumber, paper and other products manufactured by Canada’s industrial sector.

As well, a slowdown in the housing market — caused by higher mortgage rates, tighter lending by banks and falling consumer sentiment — has hurt the construction, appliance and related sectors.

New figures from Statistics Canada on Thursday showed the construction sector under pressure.

Contractors took out $5.7 billion in building permits in August, down 9.2% from July, due to a big decrease in the non-residential sector — mainly factories, offices and other industrial buildings.

In a report Thursday, TD Bank predicted the jobless rate will remain at 8.1% as the economic slowdown continues to weigh down the jobs market and makes another rate hike unlikely.

“Now that the volatility within the educational services component has worked its way out of the data, the performance of the labour market should once again reflect underlying economic fundamentals,” senior strategist David Tulk said in the report.

“Without the rebound in education hiring in August, the labour market would have shed 33,000 jobs. While this figure likely overstates the degree of weakness in the labour market, it is expected that the deceleration in economic activity over the second half of the year will limit the pace of additional job growth.”

Tulk said he expects the Friday jobs report will also show that both hours worked and the growth rate in wages will remain on the soft side in September.

“From the perspective of the Bank of Canada, subdued wage pressure will reinforce the view that core inflation will remain below the 2% target which, in turn, will justify a move to the sidelines in October.”

Porter says the markets are now pricing in a less than 10% chance of a rate hike.