The latest version of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development’s composite leading indicators are flashing early signs of economic recovery.
The OECD reported that the CLI for May “point to tangible signs of improvement in the outlook” for most OECD economies. Potential recovery signals are emerging in Italy and France, with indications of troughs emerging in Canada, Britain, the U.S., China and India, it said. Only in Russia are the trough signals “more tentative” it added.
The CLI for the OECD area increased by 0.8 of a point in May, although it remains 7.3 points lower than in May 2008. The CLI for the U.S. increased by a full point in May, but was 9.4 points lower than a year ago. The Euro area’s CLI increased by a full point in May but stood 4.7 points lower than a year ago. And, the CLI for Japan decreased by 0.3 of a point and was 14.1 points lower than a year ago. Canada’s CLI increased by 0.9 of a point in May but was 6.3 points lower than a year ago.
Meanwhile, National Bank Financial Ltd. noted that the increase in the BRIC countries’ outlook is particularly important. NBF’s own global CLI (weighted 70% OECD and 30% BRIC) grew at its fastest pace in at least 15 years in May, it reports. “This is the strongest signal yet of an expansion of the global economy in the second half,” it said.
Indicators show early signs of recovery: OECD
Potential recovery signals are emerging in Italy and France, with indications of troughs emerging in Canada, Britain, the U.S., China and India
- By: James Langton
- July 10, 2009 July 10, 2009
- 10:27