Economic research firm Global Insight Inc. says that U.S. Federal Reserve Board chairman Ben Bernanke’s remarks before Congress on Monday featured a grim economic outlook, giving the U.S. government license to propose more fiscal stimulus.
The firm notes that the Fed’s economic outlook was scaled down, once again, and uncertainty about the outlook is extremely high. In his testimony to the House Budget Committee, Bernanke provided a rather grim update on the economic outlook, using a technical euphemism for recession: “the pace of economic activity is likely to be below that of its longer-term potential for several quarters,” it notes.
Moreover, Bernanke stated that because the time that will be needed for financial normalization and the effects of ongoing credit problems on the broader economy are difficult to judge, the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook is unusually large, it says. The silver lining is that commodity prices have declined sharply and inflation expectations have eased.
“In view of the very weak economic outlook, and some risk of a protracted slowdown, Bernanke stated that the consideration of a second fiscal stimulus package by Congress would be appropriate — effectively giving Congress a green light,” Global Insight notes. “In addition, Bernanke is recommending that the measures should help improve access to credit by consumers, homebuyers, businesses, and other borrowers. However, the measures should be designed to limit the impact on the federal government’s structural budget deficit.”
Global Insight reports that it had already incorporated a second fiscal stimulus package for fiscal 2009 in its October outlook. “That assumed package included higher federal spending on infrastructure spending, healthcare costs, and income security. With the guidance provided by Bernanke today, the anticipated fiscal package from Congress will likely be expanded further to include measures that support improved access to credit,” it adds.
Grim outlook from Bernanke give U.S. Congress green light to up spending
Second fiscal stimulus could include spending on infrastructure, healthcare, income security, and access to credit
- By: James Langton
- October 20, 2008 October 20, 2008
- 14:55