The prospects for global economic recovery hinge largely on the ability of countries to reopen without experiencing a spike in Covid-19 infections — and, so far, the results aren’t great, cautions DBRS Morningstar.
In a new report, the rating agency said its global macroeconomic scenarios have changed only modestly in most regions.
Negative economic data and gloomier forecasts have altered its base case for several European countries including the U.K., France, Italy and Spain.
Relatively positive data in several Nordic countries underpinned upside revisions there.
“The coming weeks and months will begin to settle questions regarding the ability of major economies to successfully reopen without a resurgence of cases,” the report said.
“The signs thus far are not particularly reassuring.”
For instance, it reported that, on a global basis, the rolling seven-day average of new cases is at an all-time high.
India, Brazil and parts of the U.S. are seeing rapid growth in cases, it noted.
“The continued spread of the virus in the Americas and parts of Asia will at least partially impede the emerging global economic recovery,” DBRS said.
“Particularly for the global travel, entertainment and hospitality industries, activity may remain severely depressed for a considerable period of time,” it said.
Ultimately, a full economic recovery will turn on whether vaccines and treatments to combat Covid-19 are developed, allowing activity to return to more normal conditions, DBRS said.
However, that’s not likely to happen quickly.
“We anticipate that even with a series of early successes in vaccine development, the deployment of a vaccine across the globe and a full restoration of confidence will take time,” DBRS warned.
In the meantime, “There is scope for many countries and regions to rely on more targeted policy responses and avoid broad restrictions on activity,” it said.