With a spark coming from the new U.S. fiscal stimulus package, Fitch Ratings is hiking up its global GDP forecast.

The rating agency said it has raised its projection for global GDP growth to 6.1% this year, up from 5.3% in its previous forecast.

“Global growth prospects are improving as fiscal support is stepped up sharply, economies adapt to social distancing and vaccination rollout gathers momentum,” Fitch said.

Global GDP is now expected to be 2.5% higher in 2021 than it was in 2019, before the pandemic hit, the firm said.

“The pandemic is not over, but it is starting to look like we have entered the final phase of the economic crisis,” said Brian Coulton, chief economist at Fitch, in a release.

The rating agency has upped its U.S GDP forecast to 6.2% for 2021, up from 4.5%.

Forecasts were also revised higher for China and emerging markets.

“The main driver of our global forecast revision is the much larger-than-expected fiscal stimulus package recently passed in the U.S.,” Fitch said, noting that the US$1.9 trillion boost represents more than 2.5% of global GDP.

This comes on the heels of fourth quarter growth that came in stronger than expected, particularly in Europe and in emerging markets, the ratings agency noted.

As a result, world GDP dropped by less than expected, declining by 3.4% in 2020 versus the forecasted decline of 3.7%.

At the same time, Fitch raised its oil price assumptions for 2021 and 2022, citing the stronger than expected economic recovery and the latest OPEC+ supply constraints.

Fitch also boosted its gas price assumptions for 2021 due to higher demand stemming from a cold winter in the northern hemisphere and an economic rebound in Asia.

“We have significantly increased our 2021 price assumptions to US$58 a barrel (bbl) from US$45/bbl for Brent [crude] and to US$55/bbl from US$42/bbl for [West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude],” said Fitch.

The ratings agency expects prices will moderate in the second half of 2021 and into 2022, so it has only raised its 2022 assumptions by US$3/bbl to US$53/bbl and US$50/bbl for Brent and WTI, respectively.