Global money managers think the cycle of interest rate cuts is coming to an end, and that thought is echoing through their asset allocation decisions according to the latest Global Fund Managers Survey from Merrill Lynch.

David Bowers, global investment strategist with Merrill, says that, “There’s been a rethink on interest rates, a rethink on growth and a rethink on which industries are going to benefit from this.” He says that institutional fund managers appear to see an end to the cycle of interest-rate cuts that began in January 2001.”

The sharp rise in bond yields over the past month appears to have cemented the view that global interest rates may no longer be falling, he notes. “This month saw the largest wholesale shift from bonds into equities since the second quarter of 2002.”

Nearly three quarters of fund managers polled in the survey believe world monetary policy to be about right, and nearly half expect short-term interest rates to be higher a year from now, Bowers reports. “This view is being driven by a consensus that the global economy will be significantly stronger in 12 months’ time. Nominal GDP growth is now estimated at 3.5%, up from 3.1% in April,” he says.

Bowers says expectations for company earnings are upbeat, with fund managers now expecting earnings per share growth of around 9% in the next 12 months, up from 6.5% three months ago.

“With world economic growth and company profit expectations at their highest since the first half of 2002, cyclical assets are ousting consumer staples as the investment sector of choice,” he reports.

“There has also been a significant shift in where these improved earnings are going to come from. Though most fund managers still expect stronger earnings to come from cutting costs, a third of respondents now believe higher volumes will drive earnings.”

On a sector basis, fund managers are selling utilities and staples to buy technology and cyclical stocks such as media companies. Bowers says, “This trend could be as decisive for Japan as any number of domestic reforms. The country is now back on the investment map.”

“As to what fund managers would like companies to do with excess cash, there has been a modest decrease in the call for companies to pay down debt. A quarter of participants would now prefer companies to increase capital spending instead,” Bowers concludes.