The global carbon market will grow by 20% in volume in 2009, but its value will shrink for the first time ever due to lower carbon prices, predicts carbon market research firm Point Carbon.

Point Carbon forecasts that 5.9 billion tonnes (gigatonnes) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) will trade this year, compared to 4.9 Gt in 2008, an increase of 20%.

However, the firm sees a contraction in the value of trading. It forecasts that the global CO2e market will be worth €62.6 billion (US$79.7 billion) this year, down 32% compared with 2008, based on reduced price forecasts for European Union allowances and secondary certified emission reductions in 2009, and current carbon prices for other markets. A drop in trading value would represent the first year of contraction since the start of carbon trading, the firm points out.

It says that the EU’s emissions trading scheme should see trading volume increase 24% over last year to 3.8 Gt, primarily due to increased spot trading activity and despite lower emissions. However, the value of the EU ETS market is predicted to drop significantly to €45.2 billion, a reduction of 33% vs 2008.

Point Carbon also foresees a considerable drop in clean development mechanism and joint implementation projects, mainly due to the current economic crisis.

The good news for the global carbon market lies in new markets such as the U.S.-based Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, which saw its first forward trades and auctions last year. Point Carbon says that the RGGI will see 339 Mt CO2e traded this year, up from 71 Mt in 2008, giving it a 6% share in the global carbon market by yearend.

“The economic downturn will hit the value of global carbon markets as a whole, but the U.S. looks set to buck this trend and shows healthy growth,” says Endre Tvinnereim, a senior analyst with Point Carbon and the author of the report.

The report also sees growth in trading as countries in Central and Eastern European countries begin participating in the global market. Additionally, it predicts that Australia’s federal Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme market will transact 24 Mt this year, and Point Carbon foresees 17 Mt changing hands in preparation for a mandatory federal cap-and-trade in the U.S. and Canada.