Foreign investors added $4.8 billion to their holdings of Canadian securities in April, their third consecutive month of large investments, Statistics Canada reported Wednesday.
During the month, Canadian investors continued to buy large amounts of foreign bonds, while reducing their holdings of foreign equities.
BMO Nesbitt Burns says that total inflows so far in 2003 have now reached $13.3 billion, nearly two-thirds of last year’s net inflow in just one-third of the year. CIBC World Markets comments that, “Canada is on pace to record its largest annual net portfolio inflow in a decade.”
In April, foreign investors were net buyers of all types of Canadian assets, Nesbitt points out. “This contrasts with the results of Q1, when they were net sellers of stocks and short-term paper.” Still, bonds remain the asset of choice for foreign investors, enjoying $3.7 billion of inflows. Buying that Nesbitt says “rivals the ‘glory days’ of the early 1990s, when annual purchases averaged $25 billion”.
“Beyond foreign purchases of Canadian bonds, there is another big story on the capital account driving the loonie’s ascent,” says Nesbitt. “Canadian investors are suddenly reducing their holdings of foreign equities, after being big net buyers over the five previous years. Purchases of global stocks by Canadian investors averaged $30 billion per year from 1998-2002. In complete contrast, Canadians have trimmed their holdings of foreign equities by $3.3 billion so far this year. Of note, the flagging U.S. dollar may be driving this trend, as most of the selling has been in U.S. stocks.”
RBC Financial says that the data highlights the accelerating foreign demand for Canadian assets (particularly bonds) and declining Canadian appetite for foreign assets — trends that it says appear to have continued in May and June. “And with global liquidity flows characterized by a search for higher-yielding alternatives to US dollar assets, these trends should continue ahead, keeping the Canadian dollar well supported.”
“With Canada also running a large trade surplus, the year-to-date net inflow of $11 billion in securities transactions has provided a huge push for the currency, and will likely remain so until the Bank of Canada signals its willingness to match upcoming Fed cuts,” says CIBC.