Major tax changes are unlikely on Tuesday when Finance Minister Jim Flaherty tables his third federal budget, considering the sweeping cuts tabled last October in the Fall Economic Statement.

With previous governments, the statement has simply provided an update on the government’s stance on the country’s current fiscal situation. But the government of Prime Minister Steven Harper has, two years in a row, used the opportunity to introduce major budgetary changes. In the most recent case, this was in the form of a series of back-end loaded tax cuts.

“In total, this economic statement will provide almost $60 billion in additional tax relief over this and the next five fiscal years,” the Fall Economic Statement read. The update proposed to “deliver more broad-based tax relief to individuals and families.” According to the government, 73% of tax relief since the 2006 budget has gone to individuals and 27% to businesses.

To the chagrin of most Canadian economists, the feds went ahead with the plan to cut the GST by a further 1% to 5% as of January 2008. “At the margin, the GST cut — by boosting consumption — increases the likelihood that the next direction for the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate will be up rather than down,” wrote TD economist Pascal Gauthier, at the time.

In fact, the surging loonie and volatility in global markets pushed the central bank to lower its target for the overnight rate by a quarter percentage point to 4.25% in early December, about a month after the release of the economic statement, the first in a series of cuts that put the current target for the overnight rate at 4%.

The October tax changes made reference to the government’s willingness to work toward harmonization of provincial sales taxes across Canada, but no action was taken. TD Economics said the coupling of harmonization and a GST cut would have been much more effective. TD said provinces that would suffer a revenue loss from harmonization could have raised their rate without consumers taking a hit. “We cannot help but feel that an important opportunity was missed to help make Canada more competitive on that front,” said Gauthier.

Canadian workers saw the personal tax exemption hiked by nearly $700, to $9,600, with another $500 hike set for 2009. As well, the lowest personal income tax rate was lowered half a percentage point to 15%, which essentially restored the plan of the previous, Liberal government. At the time, the government estimated this would mean 385,000 fewer people would have to pay income tax.

On the business front, the October statement cut the corporate income tax rate to 15% by 2012 from the current 22%, starting with a 1% drop each year for the next three years. The 2008 rate will drop to 19.5%. This approximately $14.1 billion cut will give Canada the “lowest overall tax rate on new business investment in the Group of Seven (G-7) by 2011 and the lowest statutory tax rate in the G-7 by 2012,” the government said. The ultimate aim is to bring the combined federal/provincial corporate tax rate to 25%, it added.

Although tax relief for small business was relatively minor — the rate dropped to 11% from the 12% rate the 2006 budget introduced beginning in 2008, a total reduction of $265 million over five years — the relief program was welcomed. “We really welcome these measures,” said Garth Whyte, executive vice-president of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB), after the release of the measures. “Many of our members are struggling to cope with economic forces such as the strong Canadian dollar, extremely tight labour markets and an uneasy credit situation,” he said.

The CFIB has continued to push for further tax cuts in next week’s budget.

Meanwhile, the October statement announced the federal government would put an immediate $10 billion toward the debt and another $3 billion per year following, which means the 25% debt-to-GDP ratio target will be met three years ahead of schedule.

After all cuts and tax measures were considered, the government forecast a budgetary surplus of $11.6 billion.

Eight months into the current fiscal year, the government was running a $6.7 billion surplus, including the cost of the retroactive income tax cuts for the 2007 tax year, slightly below that accumulated the previous year. Economists have projected that the upcoming budget may have to reduce amounts earmarked for debt reduction.

@page_break@RBC Economics noted that relief promised to investors in the capital gains department was conspicuously missing from the fall statement.

The cuts were seen as surprising and positive when announced in October. “The reductions are the classic broad-based tax cuts, with the expected positive impacts on the strength of the Canadian economy,” said Dale Orr, managing director of Canadian macroeconomic services at Global Insight. “Specifically, the proposed cuts will strengthen the incentives for people to seek more and better employment opportunities. On the corporate side, the income tax reduction will increase the incentive for companies to invest and to be innovative. All individuals and families would share in the benefits of this proposed tax relief, as would all corporate taxpayers.”