The U.S. Federal Reserve today voted to raise its key federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.5%, in a move that was widely expected.
Today’s meeting was the last one helmed by Chairman Alan Greenspan, who is retiring.
In its statement, the Fed noted that “the expansion in economic activity appears solid. Nevertheless, possible increases in resource utilization as well as elevated energy prices have the potential to add to inflation pressures.”
Signally that additional rate hikes may be necessary, the committee added “that some further policy firming may be needed to keep the risks to the attainment of both sustainable economic growth and price stability roughly in balance.”
In its 19-month tightening streak, the Fed has now boosted interest rates 14 times from a 40-year low of 1%.
Greenspan’s replacement is Ben Bernanke, who was formerly chairman of President George W. Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers and a member of the Fed’s board of governors from August 2002 until June 2005.
Bernanke was confirmed by the U.S. Senate today, and his term begins tomorrow.
The first Fed meeting to set the interest rate with Bernanke in charge is scheduled for March 28.
Economists say they didn’t get a great deal of insight from the accompanying policy statement, clearing the decks for the Fed’s future direction under Ben Bernanke.
“The Fed made few changes to its press release; removing the word measured but maintaining a tightening bias,” says National Bank Financial. “More should be learned at the Fed’s semi-annual policy report to the Congress,” it adds.
“We have not learned much from today’s press release. We believe that Mr. Greenspan did not want to alter market expectations (currently pricing more than 70% probability of a last hike in March) in order to let incoming Fed governor Bernanke provide his own set of guidance at its upcoming semi-annual testimony to Congress on February 15,” NBF says.
“We will await this testimony before deciding if we need to alter our current forecast of no more rate hikes. For now, we still believe that recent changes in financial regulation and tighter supervision for mortgage lending limit the need for a further usage of the overnight rate as a policy tool,” it concludes.
TD Bank says, “While far from a sure bet, we believe incoming chairman Bernanke will raise rates one last time by 25 basis points on March 28th.” It agrees that, “the central bank has left the wording of the communiqué sufficiently open-ended for incoming chairman Ben Bernanke to define the economic risks and monetary policy direction as he sees fit.”
“We expect the Bank of Canada to hike rates once again on March 7, despite the strength in the Canadian dollar,” adds BMO Nesbitt Burns. “We continue to believe that both the Fed and the Bank are close to the end of their tightening cycle. ‘One more and then done’ may well be the call.”