The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday voted unanimously to keep the target federal funds rate for interbank lending in a range near zero, where it has been since December.
The discount rate for commercial and investment banks was also left unchanged, at 0.5%.
Both rate decisions were universally expected by Wall Street economists.
Fed officials reiterated their pledge to keep rates “exceptionally low” for an extended period.
Policymakers gave a nod to some signs of stability in the economy, specifically mentioning household spending.
“Although the economic outlook has improved modestly since the March meeting, partly reflecting some easing of financial market conditions, economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time,” the FOMC stated.
Fed officials also signaled they might increase the size of programs to buy mortgage-related and Treasury securities if needed to keep borrowing costs down and ease the economy’s path out of recession.
“The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets,” the FOMC said Wednesday.
Since the Fed didn’t change much in its latest policy statement, economists took note of what it didn’t say.
National Bank Financial says the Fed’s decision not to change anything about its current easing is “well justified given the extensive programs put in place in recent months. This being said, the Fed is not moving to the sidelines either as many of the previously announced measures are still being implemented.”
NBF adds that the Fed’s stance, along with other recent developments on the policy and economic fronts, “comfort us in our view that the authorities will be able to limit the length of the recession to 20-22 months and prevent a more severe contraction.”
However, the Fed certainly isn’t letting its foot off the gas just yet. “Although the Fed announced no new initiatives today, clearly the tone of the press release suggests that the Fed will continue to support previously announced credit easing and expects to do so ‘for an extended period’, observes BMO Capital Markets.
TD Securities notes that while the Fed’s monetary policy stance is effectively unchanged, its assessment of the economy “was somewhat more optimistic, though the Fed expects economic activity to remain weak”. Moreover, it notes that the Fed statement didn’t mention the TALF program, which it interprets “as the committee perhaps de-emphasising this program, given its less-than-stellar performance since its inception last month.”
BMO also points out that the FOMC didn’t mention the swine flu pandemic risk, which it says “also put downside risk on a fragile global economy. Uncertainty and fear is the last thing the economy needs.” “The Fed still sees green shoots and believes the U.S. economy will begin to rebound later this year. The Fed also feels inflation will remain low despite its running the printing presses and despite massive fiscal red ink. Today’s first quarter GDP release suggests that the economy is poised to bottom and even begin to grow in the third or fourth quarter, but all of that assumes little additional disruption from the swine flu. Developments there are happening fast and neither the Fed nor market participants know the ultimate outcome. But surely, the Fed sees little risk in being as accommodative as possible,” BMO concludes.
“On the whole, one can interpret this statement as a status quo report card, with the Fed more-or-less regurgitating most of what it has said in its prior communiqué,” concludes TD. “However, the more upbeat economic assessment, the musing about the size of its asset purchases, and the de-emphasizing of the TALF program are noteworthy changes to an otherwise mundane statement.”
IE