The Canadian Press

Canadian workers may pay the price for the relatively healthy job market during last year’s recession.

Job creation normally goes hand in hand with economic growth – with a little lag – but few analysts expect a big jobs rebound after last quarter’s sharp growth in the economy.

A consensus of economists surveyed believe Friday’s employment report from Statistics Canada will show a modest 15,500 jobs pickup for February, barely treading water with population growth.

That expected tepid employment growth comes after the 5% annualized growth the economy posted in the last three months of 2009.

Some have called such lacklustre expectations indications of a jobless recovery, but Scotiabank’s Derek Holt notes that it is also the flip-side of better-than-expected employment during the recession.

According to Statistics Canada, the economy contracted 2.6% in 2009, while employment was down at about half that rate.

In fact, employment in Canada has increased by 138,000 in the last six months.

Holt says the relatively few job losses during the deep recession, combined with the fact Canada started adding jobs before most other countries, suggests gains will be more modest going forward.

Also adding to the dampening expectations is that governments are starting to shed public service jobs to rein in massive deficits, putting more onus on the still fragile private sector.