Fast rise in consumer spending could speed up job market recovery, BoC deputy says

In a speech to Restaurants Canada, Bank of Canada deputy governor Lawrence Schembri said the fate of those dollars, and when and how they are spent, would affect the course of the economic recovery.

If vaccinations rollout quickly, the Bank of Canada estimates an additional $4 billion quarterly could be pumped into the economy at the end of 2021 and early 2022 after broad immunity is achieved.

Schembri said the surge in spending would increase employment by about 30,000 more jobs on average annually over the next three years than the central bank previously projected.

That kind of turnaround could benefit the hardest hit workers and businesses through the pandemic, he said, noting the thousands of restaurants that let staff go or closed for good as sales plummeted.

“There is much uncertainty about what Canadians will do with these savings,” Schembri said in the text of his speech released by the bank.

“This is important because these savings are large enough to meaningfully affect the trajectory of the economy. If Canadians spend more than we expect, it would strengthen the recovery in consumption and employment.”

The central bank noted the uneven impacts on the labour force were part of its decision on Wednesday to hold its key interest rate at 0.25%, which is where it has been for almost one year.

Leading up to the decision, there were better than expected economic output figures for the last quarter of 2020, vaccine approvals made months earlier than expected and a hot housing market that the bank noted warrants close monitoring lest it overheat.

Schembri said the domestic economy had more momentum at the start of the year than the bank previously anticipated, but the recent drop in employment figures and continuing uncertainty meant now wasn’t the time to raise rates.

“There are now about twice as many job losses as there were at the height of the Great Recession a decade ago,” Schembri said in his speech. “It will take some time for the labour market to recoup these losses, given that the economy will be restructuring as it recovers.”

A report Thursday by the Organization for Economic Co-operation (OECD) projected the Canadian economy will grow 4.7% in 2021, and 4.0% in 2022.

The OECD report said growth would bring the economy close to pre-crisis trends, drive down unemployment and likely mean core inflation will gradually pick up over the near-term. The report also flagged for attention how much faster Canada’s housing prices have climbed relative to its peers.

The organization said the Canadian economy is still going to require extraordinary monetary support, and said the federal government shouldn’t ease up on the aid.

“A high priority on fiscal support should remain while the economy is fragile. Crisis-related fiscal support can be withdrawn as the economy recovers,” the report said.

“Nevertheless, a clear and transparent roadmap for preventing a spiralling public debt burden is needed.”

The report said the government may have to consider a combination of spending cuts and tax increases, specifically on consumption taxes like the GST and a more aggressive rise in the carbon tax, to make federal finances sustainable once the crisis has passed.

The OECD recommended the government set specific measures for when to roll back stimulus, which is something the Liberals have said they plan to do but have yet to detail.

The report also called for the government to set a specific debt-to-GDP target to keep fiscal decisions in check.