The U.S. economy is not heading for a recession, says the Conference Board of Canada.

According to “U.S. Outlook Winter 2008,” continued growth in exports and investment spending will keep the U.S. economy from sinking too deep.

“We think that there is definitely going to be a slowdown and the unemployment rate is going to go up but we don’t see two negative quarters, which is the definition of a recession,” says Kip Beckman, author of the report, in a telephone interview.

According to the forecast, the U.S. economy is expected to expand by only 2.1%, the unemployment rate will increase to more than 5% and housing markets will not recover until at least the third quarter of 2008.

Despite this, Beckman is optimistic. “If you go outside of Wall Street, most companies in the States are not laying off workers. Most do not have inventories that are way out of line and profitability is in pretty good position at most companies,” he continued. “In fact, if you are a company in the export business you’re probably doing pretty well.”

A Merrill Lynch survey of institutional investors released earlier today shows that nearly 20% of fund managers believe that a global recession is either “likely” or “very likely.” And the number of respondents who think that a recession has, in fact, already begun, doubled to 8%, from 4% last month.

“I don’t how people can say we’re in a recession, because we won’t know until next July,” says Beckman.

While consumer spending grew at a solid pace throughout most of 2007—due mainly to increased real disposable income—declining home prices, higher energy prices and high debt levels will limit spending growth this year. Real household spending is expected to grow by just 1.4% in 2008, according the forecast.

“Consumer spending has slowed down, but it has not collapsed. I don’t think it will collapse because incomes are still growing,” says Beckman.

However, the report does warn that a sudden and unexpected drop in employment would sharply increase the chances of a recession in the coming year. Beckman says employment rates are a worry and should be monitored closely over the next few months.

“There are some positive things going on in the U.S. economy,” he says. “We think export growth is going to offset some of the damage that’s happening in the housing markets.”

According to Beckman, further rate cuts by the Fed could help the situation. But, he adds, “I guess the pessimists probably think it’s too late.”