Economists trimmed growth forecasts for the Euro area but core inflation expectations were also lower, according to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) latest survey.
The ECB’s fourth-quarter survey — which was carried out between Sept. 29 and Oct. 5 — saw expectations for real GDP growth revised down slightly for 2023 and 2024.
Survey respondents now expect GDP growth of 0.5% in 2023 and 0.9% in 2024 — representing downward revisions of 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points, respectively — before rebounding to 1.5% in 2025.
“Short-term GDP expectations imply a sluggish second half of 2023, with economic activity picking up over the first half of 2024,” the ECB said.
Inflation expectations were also modestly revised.
Headline consumer inflation is projected to decline from 5.6% in 2023 to 2.7% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025.
The ECB said the inflation call for 2023 was revised up by 0.1 points, and 2025 was revised down by 0.1 points, while the 2024 forecast was unchanged.
“The upward revisions in the short term reportedly reflected recent oil price developments,” it said.
At the same time, the forecast for core inflation (excluding food and energy) was revised downward for 2024, 2025 and the longer term — to 2.9%, 2.2% and 2.0%, down from 3.1%, 2.3%, and 2.1%, respectively, the ECB reported.