ECB leaves interest rates and pandemic stimulus unchanged

The regular purchases using newly created money — a key power of central banks — drive down longer-term borrowing costs for companies, consumers and governments.

At the last meeting on March 11, ECB President Christine Lagarde said the bank would step up the pace of those purchases during coming months, answering concerns that some bond-market interest rates were creeping up.

On Thursday, Lagarde said that the economic outlook in the short term “remains clouded by uncertainty” about the extent of the latest wave and vaccine rollout as lockdowns “continue to constrain economic activity.”

Although the bank eventually expects “a firm rebound” later in the year, Lagarde underlined that for now the bank is nowhere near withdrawing any of its extraordinary measures, even if inflation jumps later this year. Inflation is expected to temporarily climb above 2% annually in the later part of the year. She said the recent increases in inflation were due to “idiosyncratic and temporary factors” and that underlying inflationary pressures “remain subdued.”

Lagarde said the risks were “on the downside” in the short term and that bank stood ready “to adjust all its instruments” if the situation calls for it. Longer term, risk are “more balanced” and progress in ramping up vaccination was “encouraging.” Europe’s vaccine rollout has lagged that in the U.S. and the U.K.

Bank officials have stressed that any jump in inflation would be the result of one-time factors such as the withdrawal of pandemic tax breaks and comparisons with an earlier period of very low oil prices —and not a reason to withdraw any of its efforts to keep credit cheap for companies, governments and consumers. Inflation in the eurozone was an annual 1.3% in March. The bank’s goal is close to but below 2%.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has taken a similar view, and said that price increases could be due to temporary factors and that the Fed would not begin raising rates until the recovery in jobs in hiring was “effectively complete” and that inflation appears “on track to run moderately above 2% for some time.”

The eurozone economy shrank by 6.6% last year and economists say it may have contracted in the first quarter of this year as well. Output is not expected to reach pre-pandemic levels until mid-2022, lagging well behind other major pillars of the global economy. The U.S. could reach pre-pandemic output as early as this month, according to an April 14 forecast from the Conference Board, while China was the only major economy to grow for the year in 2020. The U.S. rebound is being propelled by massive relief and stimulus spending by the federal government. European governments have also spent heavily on pandemic relief but their 750-billion euro recovery fund at the EU level will only starting paying out for digital and green projects this year.

One ECB board member, Klaas Knot from the Netherlands, has suggested the ECB could start scaling back the pandemic bond purchases later this year in time to phase them out in March 2022. For now that position appears to be in the minority but could signal friction between stimulus advocates and skeptics when the scheduled end of the bond purchase stimulus draws nearer.