Consistent with the U.S. trend, consumer confidence in Canada has declined noticeably for the third consecutive quarter, and is now at its lowest point since late 2001.

At the same time, Canadians’ expectations for the near term future, in terms of economic and household financial conditions, have dipped only marginally, in comparison to a much more significant drop among American consumers.

Based on a nation-wide survey conducted by Decima Research Inc. in February, the Decima-Investors Group Index of Canadian Consumer Confidence now stands at 80.4, down from 83.4 in November. The level is well below the peak of 90.9 recorded in May 2002, and now at its lowest level since November 2001.

This latest trend closely parallels consumer confidence in the United States over this same period. The Index of Consumer Sentiment published by the University of Michigan (which is directly comparable to the Decima-Investors Group index) dropped to 79.9 in February, down from 83.3 in November.

This latest downward trend is evident primarily in eastern Canada (Quebec and the Atlantic provinces) and to a lesser extent in the west. Confidence has inched upwards in Ontario (up 0.4 points), and is now the highest in the country at 84.0. By comparison, British Columbians continue to be the least optimistic about economic and personal financial conditions (69.4, down 3.6).

While overall confidence levels are tracking closely on both sides of the border, a very different picture emerges when it comes to consumers’ expectations for the near term future.

Consumer expectations have dipped only marginally in Canada (to 78.4, down 1.7 points), but much more significantly in the U.S. (to 69.9, down 8.6 points).

“The downward trend in both countries is indicative of the general uncertainty people are feeling given current world events,” said Keith Neuman, senior vice president at Decima Research. “At the same time, the more substantial drop in expectations in the U.S. suggests that Americans are much more shaken by the potential economic consequences of war in Iraq (e.g. causing a spike in oil prices) and the increased threat of terrorist attacks at home.”

The results are based on a Decima Express survey conducted with a representative sample of 2,025 Canadians (18 years and older) between February 13 and 23, 2003. A sample of this size will provide results that can be considered accurate for the population overall to within plus or minus 2.2 per cent, 19 times out of 20 .