The collapse in oil prices is serving a hard hit to Canada’s 2015 economic forecast, according the Conference Board of Canada’s most recent Canadian Outlook report.
“A good portion of business investment is in the oil industry so we’re expecting about a 24% decline in energy-related investments,” says Matthew Stewart, associate director for the organization’s national forecast.
The number is dramatic enough that it is expected that Canada’ economy will only grow by 1.9% in 2015. This is down from the Conference Board’s previous assumption of 2.4%, which was released in November 2014.
Oil prices appear to be bottoming out at US$50, which represents a decline of 40% in crude oil prices in 2015 from last year. While oil producers are expected to export an average of 3 million barrels per day in 2015, an increase from 2.8 million barrels per day in 2014, the drop in prices will result in more than US$40 billion in lost revenue.
The impact is already being felt with many oil producers announcing cuts to their capital budgets. Significant layoffs are also expected in the oil industry and businesses connected to the industry.
This development will have a substantial impact in overall business investment and the economies in Alberta and Newfoundland and Labrador will be especially affected, according to Stewart.
However, the Conference Board is expecting a slight oil recovery by the end of the year with a possible increase of US$60 per barrel. This is because current prices are affecting the feasibility of projects, resulting in number of North American mines decreasing and less production.
“It’s just not cost-effective to make this new investment and eventually that will have an impact on the amount of oil on the market,” says Stewart. “There’s no way that this price is sustainable.”
If there is any consolation to the sluggish Canadian economy and the weaker loonie, it will be felt in Ontario, which will benefit from a pick-up in the consumption of automobiles and auto parts in the United States.
Consumers are also expected to see some additional household savings thanks to low oil prices and federal tax cuts, such as the plan to introduce income splitting for some Canadian families. However, it is likely that this will be countered by moderate-income growth and the substantial amount of debt taken on by Canadians, according to Stewart.