Provided that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine doesn’t tip the world economy into recession, the short-term effects on a range of commodities will boost Canadian companies, equities and the loonie, says National Bank Financial.
In a new report, the firm pointed out that most of Russia’s top exports — including energy, agricultural products and minerals — are also major export categories for Canada.
As sanctions and other economic measures taken in response to Russian aggression take hold, the global prices for many of these commodities are soaring.
“It remains to be seen whether these prices are sustainable or whether they will push the world economy into recession,” the report noted.
But in the meantime, higher commodity prices are boosting Canadian trade, fuelling corporate income and government revenues.
“If a global recession can be avoided, today’s resource pricing dynamic would be supportive for [the Canadian dollar], select Canadian equities and certain Canadian credits (governments and corporates),” the report said. “And that’s all without shipping anything extra.”
At the same time, the isolation of Russia may undermine its long-term position as a supplier of commodities, creating “a clear opportunity for resource-rich nations like Canada to step into Russia’s shoes,” the report noted.
While the conflict in Ukraine has raised risks, the likelihood of a recession is hard to predict given the highly uncertain trajectory of the conflict, National Bank Financial said.
“Make no mistake, Canadians are shocked, saddened and angered by Russia’s actions,” the report concluded. “But despite the unfolding tragedy, there are significant near-term implications for Canadian trade, equities, currency and credit markets, alongside a longer-term opportunity to stand-in for what could become a pariah nation.”