Canada is less at risk than Mexico to possible shifts in U.S. trade policy, according to a new report from Fitch Ratings Inc.
The credit-rating agency’s outlook for the sovereign credit ratings of Canada and the U.S. remains stable in the wake of Donald Trump’s surprise presidential election victory. Fitch expects “a policy shift towards tax cuts and deregulation” under the new administration that “would be positive for growth in the short term, and a risk of protectionism, which would be negative over the medium term.”
However, Canada is less at risk than Mexico to possible efforts to rewrite major trade agreements, such as NAFTA, Fitch reports: “Canada is highly dependent on trade with the U.S., but given Canada’s modest trade surplus with the U.S., we see it as less exposed than Mexico.”
Although the future for U.S trade policy remains uncertain, Fitch is expecting to see a recovery in investment to drive 1.9% real gross domestic product growth for Canada in 2017.
“Overvalued housing markets and high household debt pose risks to growth,” the Fitch report says. “Recent macro-prudential tightening measures to cool the housing market will also cool economic activity.”
For the U.S., a looser fiscal policy would result in larger deficits and higher debt, alongside stronger growth, the report says, but the Republican-led Congress may prove more hawkish on fiscal policy than the president-elect.
Although rising debt levels could put pressure on the U.S. sovereign credit rating over the medium term, there’s no immediate risk to the current AAA rating for the U.S., the Fitch report says, “which is supported by the sovereign’s unparalleled financing flexibility and the dollar’s status as the pre-eminent reserve currency.”