In its Bond Strategy Report for October, BMO Nesbitt Burns reports that it expects another interest rate hike from the Bank of Canada this month.

“The Canadian economy has continued to hum along, and there is now no spare capacity left,” the bond strategy committee writes, noting that this pushed the Bank to hike rates in September. “However, with inflation still benign, the tightening campaign will proceed at a moderate pace,” it predicts.

The committee notes that “The booming loonie will take some of the pressure off the Bank of Canada to lift rates aggressively, supporting the short end of the curve.” However, it still expects another hike on October 19.

“Bond yields are poised to rise, suggesting below benchmark duration,” it predicts. “To maintain yields, we have bumped up the weight in provincial bonds – their finances are in better shape after the health care deal, and with the stronger economy.”

September was relatively quiet in the provincial bond market, with only four deals totaling $1.25 million completed during the month, the firm notes. Looking ahead, it expects more issuance from larger issuers (Ontario and Quebec) on the provincial front.

Among corporate bonds, BMO Nesbitt reports that new deal activity picked up to $2.8 billion in September from $1.6 billion in August, but was well below issuance of $4.2 billion a year earlier. Financials continued to dominate corporate new issuance last month, comprising 75% of total activity. Trading volumes started out light as investors returned from the summer holiday season, but activity increased in the latter half on a flood of new issuance, it notes. “We believe a better indication for the direction of market sentiment will emerge in October and November when the new issue calendar is expected to build and investors adjust their portfolios heading into year-end.”

As for the U.S., BMO Nesbitt says that the last few weeks of the Presidential election will be the main distraction this month. There is no FOMC meeting, while non-farm payrolls are likely to show only moderate job growth, it offers.