The refunding needs of Canadian corporations will be much lower in the years ahead than they will be in the United States, according to a new report from Moody’s Investors Service.

The rating agency reports that just $75 billion of Canadian corporate debt is due to mature by 2014, compared to almost $1.4 trillion in the U.S. Moreover, the majority of that, about $45 billion worth, comes from investment-grade debt. Whereas in the U.S., 60% of the maturities due between 2010 and 2014 is speculative grade debt, it notes.

“Compared to the sizeable amount of debt coming due for the United States over the next five years, the modest amount of debt due over the next five years in Canada is due to less [leveraged buyout] activity prior to 2007 than in the U.S. and lower debt levels heading into the cycle,” said Kevin Cassidy, senior credit officer at Moody’s.

“Near-term refunding risk is low for Canadian rated corporate issuers because liquidity is improving and the economy is recovering,” said Cassidy.

“However, longer-term refunding risk remains a slight concern over the next five years due to the relatively high unemployment rate and interest rates that are likely to increase.” Cassidy noted. “Still, refunding risk in Canada is far less problematic than in the U.S. over the next five years,” he added.

Moody’s says that the $75 billion of maturities over the next five years does not appear excessive in terms of average annual new issuance, or as a percentage of debt outstanding. Over the past 14 years the average speculative grade new issuance (more than $10 billion) and investment-grade new issuance (almost $13 billion) exceeds the maturities every year except for 2014. Maturities for both speculative-grade and investment-grade debt over the next five years are back-end weighted with a just $4 billion due in 2010, $15 billion due in 2011, $13 billion due in 2012, $17 billion due in 2013 and $25 billion due in 2014, it reports.

“Certain conditions could raise questions over the markets’ ability to absorb this debt burden, however, including lenders’ capacity and appetite; the risk of a double-dip recession; and the prospect of a prolonged period of below-normal growth,” noted Cassidy.

IE