(April 30 – 06:30 ET) – This week’s economic reports should give analysts some clarity on the future direction of interest rates. And there’ll be enough earnings activity to keep traders hopping.

Canada’s data reports are loaded for the start of the week. February GDP is due out on today, along with industrial prices. TD Bank economists predict that the GDP report won’t be pretty. “The story in February is likely to be one of broadly-based softness, as a curtailing of demand by consumers and businesses on the domestic front — combined with sagging U.S. export demand – acted to push down overall output of Canada’s industries by an estimated 0.2% in the month.”

The Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report is due on Tuesday. The report will be closely watched for signs that the central banker is prepared to match any future rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve Board. CIBC World Markets is confident it knows where the Bank is going, noting, “We already know what the Bank of Canada1s policy report will say, as Dodge summarized its conclusions in his remarks in Vancouver last Friday: a growth forecast of just over 3% built on a second half US rebound, and inflation remaining well in check.”

BMO Nesbitt Burns expects the Bank of Canada to cut its GDP forecast, while maintaining its inflation call. “The anticipated decline in monthly GDP will wash away a strong start to the year, and builds in Q1 GDP growth of barely over 1% annualized. No improvement is expected for Q2”.

In the United States, there’ll be a steady stream of data all week. Most of it is expected to refute the strength in today’s GDP numbers. As a result, markets should return to calls for further easing. “The coming week1s economic data have the potential to change the market1s thinking about Fed policy significantly,” says BMO. “Markets currently have built in
a 25 bps step at the May FOMC meeting and another similar move at the late June gathering. These steps would bring the Fed funds rate to 4%, and, as far as market prices are concerned, that’s all for folks the rest of the year.”

Personal income and spending numbers, for the U.S., are due today. On Tuesday, the National Association of Purchasing Managers report is out. It is expected to rise a little, but then it couldn’t go much lower. Wednesday brings factory orders numbers and the Fed’s Beige Book. CIBC World Markets says, “Keep a close eye on the Beige Book. It will probably reveal the sort of troubling anecdotal evidence of economic malaise that the Fed used to come to its recent rate-cut decisions.”

Economists get a breather on Thursday, followed by the jobs report on Friday. This is always a closely watched report, and promises to get plenty of attention, as people try to determine whether consumer spending will hold in or crumble.

TD analysts say, “Friday’s report on non-farm payrolls for April is expected to paint a picture of anemic job growth — and a further increase in the unemployment rate — as manufacturing firms likely reduced payrolls again in the month, while job creation in other sectors continued to slow sharply. Evidence that the manufacturing sector remained in recession early in the spring is likely to emerge from Tuesday’s report from the NAPM Index.”

On the earnings front, Cameco Corp. reports today, along with Inmet Mining,
Pengrowth Energy Trust, and Quebecor World. Agrium Inc. will take the lead on Tuesday, joined by Canadian Utilities Ltd., Fortis Inc., Glamis Gold, Husky Energy, Manulife Financial, MDC Corp., Newmont Mining and Royal Group Technologies.

On Wednesday, Breakwater Resources, Canada Life, Canadian Tire Corp., Enbridge Inc., IAMGOLD, Industrial-Alliance Life, Kinross Gold, Loblaw Cos., Magna International, Nexen Inc., Talisman Energy and Telus Corp. report.

Thursday rounds off the reporting activity with updates from Echo Bay Mines, Emera Inc., Kingsway Financial, Meridian Gold and Mosaic Group Inc.