Solid, though decelerating, global economic growth will continue to support banks’ creditworthiness in 2019, says New York-based Moody’s Investors Service in a report published Wednesday..
Geopolitical and domestic risks, however, pose the greatest source of uncertainty and risk in 2019, with U.S.-China tensions spreading far beyond trade disputes.
“In addition, the risks of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit scenario under which the U.K. banks’ credit fundamentals would weaken, have increased,” Moody’s says in a news release.
“Growth will still be solid in advanced economies in 2019, though the growth outlook for emerging markets is more cloudy, with tightening monetary policy, rising trade protectionism and slower demand from China,” says Andrea Usai, associate managing director at Moody’s, in a statement. “The generally supportive operating environment overall will help banks to preserve the stronger capitalization achieved in recent years.”
Rising interest rates will help improve banks’ profitability, Moody’s says; adding that it expects that banks in Canada, the United States and the United Kingdom will benefit more than Europe’s banks in a rising rate environment.
“Lending rates at banks in Canada and the UK will reprice faster at higher rates than for peers in other advanced economies, as their loans generally have shorter maturities, providing a more rapid boost to profits,” the report says. “Additionally, the greater reliance on deposit-based funding in these two countries will keep banks’ funding costs from rising as fast as loan yields, widening their net interest margins.”
“In the U.S., the stronger profitability of banks versus their global peers is being supported, among other things, by the rise in U.S. rates that began in late 2015,” the report says.
“The slower pace of rate rises and greater use of market funding will hold back profitability gains for banks in continental Europe,” says Armen Dallakyan, vice president and senior analyst at Moody’s, in a statement.
Moody’s also expects financial stability risk to rise following a decade-long period of low interest rates.
“As monetary policy gradually normalizes in advanced economies, particularly the U.S., volatility will return to financial markets, a challenge for many banks but also an opportunity for firms with large trading activities,” the report says.